Restoration Ecology

Prediction and uncertainty in restoration science: a framework for forecasting restoration outcomes

To harness ecological restoration’s full potential, significant advances to predictive capacity must be made in restoration ecology. As part of the Society for Ecological Restoration's Strategic Issue to set the agenda for the next decade, I outline six challenges that impede predictive capabilities in restoration and an agenda for overcoming each challenge. I then provide a framework to increase forecasting capabilities in restoration science. A robust predictive capacity will help to reliably meet goals, enhance cost-effectiveness, and guide policy decisions to help see out the promise of the Decade on Ecosystem Restoration.

Read about it in the Restoration Ecology here

Landscape connectivity, trophic dynamics, and resilience for large-scale wetland restoration planning

Distribution of 22 unique factorial field experiments distributed across North America (N = 15) and Europe (N = 7). Examples: 1. Serpentine grassland – USA, California. 2. Longleaf pine savanna – USA, Louisiana. 3. Subalpine grassland and Rotmoos fen, - Austria, Tyrol. Experiments span 40° latitudinal gradient.

1. How does drought and landscape connectivity influence ecosystem resilience?

2. Are early warning indicators derived from general time series dynamics useful for forecasting thresholds in community states?

3. How do we determine and evaluate ecosystem restoration options given future climate uncertainties and changing sociological drivers?

Read more about my work informing one of the worlds highest profile restoration projects here and here.

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